The European Commission has proposed to increase the renewable electricity target to 65% by 2030. While undergoing changes in system planning and operation, power system shall remain reliable – failure to do so can mean devastating consequences for the system, including brownouts and blackouts.
At the same time utilities are faced with the challenge of providing continuous power supply to a demanding customer, while keeping service interruptions at a minimum, no matter what weather conditions. And being able to forecast local weather conditions over the next day or two is a critical factor in planning operations and making effective decisions.
Receiving accurate detailed forecasts on weather elements, which are impactful to operations, and then assessing forecasts for their accuracy, so good decisions are based on accurate data, is essential. Forecasting can significantly reduce the system cost of integrating renewables. The most important variable that impacts a utility is the amount of demand for energy. Weather forecast plays a critical role in demand forecast and load forecast. Weather forecast errors can account for 40% to 90% of demand forecast error. Tracking weather impacts on the ramp ups and ramp downs from renewable resources is crucial to resilience.
Weather has always been a fundamental driver in energy trading. Energy traders demand forecast information that details both when and where major weather changes are expected to occur. Both short- and long-range forecasts are essential as they require information about what is expected to take place over the coming days, weeks, and months. Even a minor overnight change in a weather model or forecast can impact prices in energy markets.
- Operating the Power System in Great Britain: Forecast Development and Challenges
- Evaluating forecasts. When is good enough enough?
- The use / interpretation of different weather models for energy trading
- Seasonal Forecasts in Enel for the Business Decision processes
- Using weather parameters in long term demand forecast (TRAPUNTA)
- The challenge of forecasting energy requirements for our customers
- Challenges in forecasting of renewables. Lessons learned